We were recently chatting to our Group Chief Economist and Global Head of Research, Goolam Ballim and he shared with us his insights into the 2012 economy. Here are some of the key points we picked up on:

Europe’s sovereign debt-servicing difficulty, the centerpiece of current risks to global welfare, is another in a series of post-recession gusts that have shaken the world.

Essentially, recent years have been defined by insufficient global aggregate demand for goods and services that has unearthed the latent vulnerabilities and absence of stabilising buffers in many economies. Furthermore, the interconnectedness of countries, regions and continents has meant that in an assortment of ways and in varying degrees, practically the entire world is being affected.

In 2012 the US and Japanese economies will be weak, while Europe will shrink. Therefore, about half the world’s economy will contribute very little to increasing income. And, while emerging economies remain kernel to global expansion, their contribution will subside. The risk is therefore for even poorer outcomes.

Africa has maintained its dynamism through the crisis and has been the second-most resilient region after Asia. The combination of strengthening internal markets and more resilient external relationships should prove profitable this year.

But, Africans cannot indulge the conceit that they are remote from the world’s tripwires. To be sure, South Africa, the continent’s largest and most externalized economy – when measured across trade and financial channels – will grow at about half its pre-crisis rate this year.

2012 will be another occasion that tests humankind’s resilience, resolve, and reason. Recessions are costly, and beyond their impact on incomes and jobs, recessions also test our humanity. Related to this will be the search for a type of market economy that seeks to balance commercial and social objectives. The gap between what companies produce and what governments provide is glaring, as the “occupy” movements remind us. But capitalism has always been evolutionary, and its contours will, somewhat, soften this year.